Susan Collins (R-ME) is up for reelection in 2026. Which Democrat will face her?
(Feel free to suggest additions, though I'll only add people who I subjectively think have a >2% chance of winning.)
1,000
3.00@256 Interesting that they would release this. It makes me think that they prefer Platner (i.e. think it's more likely that Collins will beat Platner than that she'll beat Mills)? But I don't know.
https://manifold.markets/bens/if-graham-platner-is-the-democratic?r=YmVucw
Check out this and the other linked market. Seems important Futarchy or whatever lol
switched my positions because of this, this is pre tattoo and it's hard to say how the landscape is gonna change, but that's a giant gap https://x.com/AlexThomp/status/1981343683799547926
@bens yeah, it doesn't make any sense for him to be a nazi, considering his politics and reddit comments and such. it would be good if he overcomes this.
@256 what does it say about the political judgment of someone who knowingly had a Nazi tattoo for over a decade (regardless of whether he knew it to be such when he got it, which seems not super likely but possible!) and ran for senate without thinking to cover it up?
@JackP ya I saw this after commenting and... hmmm... I mean... fool me once, y'know. but seems plausible, to be sure. It's just... most ppl manage to go their whole life without ANY nazi tattoos, let alone 1.5 Nazi tattoos
@FreshFrier my credence on whether the inclusion of the year 1919 was a Nazi reference is not 0.0001. the fact that there was another confirmed Nazi tattoo a few inches away is a heavy bayesian update towards the idea that perhaps it was intentional, lol
@bens I added too many 0s but my credence is like 0.1% because given the tattoo it is a part of it would be kind of insane for it to be an intentional dogwhistle. it's not even a remotely effective dogwhistle. I'd also never heard of 1919 being a nazi dogwhistle before, and when I did a quick search the day of I didn't find an article mentioning it, and it's not listed here either https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_symbols_designated_by_the_Anti-Defamation_League_as_hate_symbols. Now all the results when I search are about platner, so if it is a dogwhistle it's a niche one, seems so much less likely than him just getting a tattoo for the club he is in
I'm unsure how much these controversies will matter in the current climate. I still give the edge to Mills, but I think that the odds should probably be closer to around 70/20-25 Mills/Platner, not 83/8.
getting an SS totenkopf tattoo because you were "drunk in Croatia" is already pretty disqualifying but not getting it immediately removed should be career-killing i think https://bsky.app/profile/socialconcarne.bsky.social/post/3m3ols4i7v22d
