Joel Haver wins an academy award before 2030
Joel Haver wins an academy award before 2030
Basic
4
Ṁ322030
30%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Joel Haver is an amazingly great indie film maker who doesn't care about the Academy Awards at all.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Which movie from 2025 will win the Oscar for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034?
Will a High Frame Rate film win an Academy Award before 2030?
40% chance
Will Alexander Skarsgård win an Oscar for his acting before 2031?
14% chance
Will a movie made entirely by artificial intelligence win an Academy Award by 2030?
7% chance
Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030?
17% chance
Will someone named Rigoberto or Rigobert be nominated for an Academy Award / Oscar before April 1st 2032?
23% chance
Will an AI-generated script win an Oscar for Best Original Screenplay by 2030?
6% chance
Will there be an Academy Award for stunt men by the end of 2030?
81% chance
By 2040, will a superhero movie win an academy award for best picture?
17% chance