This market resolves as "Yes" if, by the annual Academy Awards ceremony in 2030, a script generated primarily by artificial intelligence (AI) wins the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay. The AI's contribution to the script must be publicly acknowledged by the film's creators, production team, or in the official Oscars nomination and award announcements. Verification can come from credible news sources, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences' official communications, or direct statements from individuals involved in the film's production who are in a position to authoritatively confirm the AI's role.
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3.00This one seems like an easy NO because the Oscars are voted on by humans who don't want to be replaced by AI.
Also, "primarily" is a high bar to clear, since a human will want to take credit for even relatively minor tweaks, and AI (being just a tool) won't defend its claim to primary authorship.
However, the resolution date is too far out to want to hold a position until resolution. Since it's already predicted at 12%, there's not much profit to had anyways.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00