Tesla FSD, RoboTaxi, CyberCab etc MegaMarket
➕
Plus
30
Ṁ15k
2026
61%
Will I be able to drop my car at the entrance to a garage and have it park by mid 2026 (possibly out of sight lines) (without me in it)
56%
Will I still have grok in my car, through mid 2026
47%
Will I will be able to get my Tesla model Y 2023 to automatically back out of my driveway to the side of the road by mid 2026 (without me in it)
45%
Will there be any conditions where I'm able to sleep in my 2023 Model Y (FSD currently 14.2.1) while it drives, on a public road by mid 2026?
39%
I'll see an Optimus or other Tesla robot in San Mateo CA in public not at the dealership by mid 2028
16%
Will I be able to use a non xAi model in the car, via same mechanism as grok, by mid 2026
10%
Will someone drive across the country in FSD with no human input of any kind by mid 2026
8%
US Customer takes delivery of Cybercab with no steering wheel by end of 2026

Any tests will be done:

  • With my model Y 2023

  • With fsd paid for

  • At my current slanted not easy driveway or equivalent

All of this is regarding tesla FSD

Update: I added clarification statements to some fo the requirements - that they be done without me. Ie its clear that I never want to enter a dirty parking garage again - so can the car do that? Similarly can it unpark for me automatically and get ready to go

  • Update 2025-12-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the question "Will I be able to sleep in my 2023 Model Y (FSD currently 14.2.1) while it drives, under any public road driving conditions by mid 2026?": This will resolve YES if there exists any weather or traffic conditions on a public road which allow sleeping while the car drives. It does not require this to work in all conditions or locations.

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Will I be able to sleep in my 2023 Model Y (FSD currently 14.2.1) while it drives, under any public road driving conditions by mid 2026?

Any road conditions - does mean anywhere so if it is possible in Florida but not California does this resolve yes or no?

@ChristopherRandles

ah I'm sorry, you're right. I mean, does there exist any weather or traffic conditions on a public road which will allow me to do this? Not ALL but whether there are any allowed cases.

@Ernie So I think I take it that "on a public road by mid 2026" is to be interpreted as "possible on just one single public road anywhere in just one set of weather conditions by mid 2026"?

I still have grok and use it all the time. it's just so convenient to yell at it while I drive and sometimes get useful info.

Also, this stat tracker launched and is dramatically changing my behavior (to maxing FSD)

bought Ṁ50 YES

Is this a HW4 or HW3 model. some 2023 Model Y had HW4. With HW4 and FSD 14.1.4 you can do the backing out of the garage and park on the side of the street

@brianwang huh, I'll try that. I just got an upgraded fsd and the quality jump has been noticeable

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

This should be resolvable, no?

Grok in car = Tesla already has 40million deployed portable semi-wearable AI devices. Take that, Sam and Jony Ive.

Wow, I got grok in my model Y today and it's very good. This is very surprising. I only played around with the language teacher part but it was still very awesome.

If this model was Claude or chatGPT with related memory functions, this would be even better

I got FSD13 a few days ago and it's pretty awesome & seems way more aware of what's going on, and doesn't tailgate as much when people merge in closely in front of me. Not 100% following my preference to keep more distance, but compared to FSD12, more than 50% of the remaining driving problems areas are gone now. e.g. FSD12 was about 90% perfect, and FSD13 is above 95%

@Ernie gonna need a lot more than one nine of correctness to get across the country without help 😆

@DavidFWatson bet ya

By my comment I meant that even me, a big booster, was surprised that over 50% of the remaining small base area got fixed in this update

I can regularly go very far with no critical disengagements, and let it run through many more environments now

@Ernie Based on context, this is specifically a market about Tesla's FSD?

@DavidFWatson Yes will update desc

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