Note: this is the "next-mover" version of this great market by @Panfilo /Panfilo/which-of-these-states-will-recogniz

This market will defer to that market's resolution, since this timespan is a subset of theirs. So barring very extreme circumstances, nothing will change here unless it changes upstream.

But, we will reward 100% to the first country which newly recognizes Israel and 0% t oany other country.

In the last few years, multiple nations have normalized relations with Israel, such as Morocco, UAE, and Kosovo. Will this trend pick up again, or will the recent destruction in Palestine cause a long diplomatic winter?

If any states break preexisting relations with Israel, they will be added by me. If recognition is ambiguous, each entry will resolve based on the removal of a state from the color-coded categories on this Wikipedia list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Israel#List_by_country