How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026?
Premium
11
Ṁ26422027
67%
>= 100
56%
>= 200
53%
>= 300
49%
>= 500
48%
>= 800
30%
>= 1300
18%
>= 2100
This is an attempt to gauge whether Arizona will become uninhabitable due to climate change within the next decade, as predicted by this tweet:
Resolution will be based on my best estimate from credible reporting, Wikipedia articles, etc. If multiple credible sources are available, I'll resolve based on the geometric mean of available numbers.
I'll add more answers if trading prices indicate that's appropriate. Ditto creating more comparable questions for different dates.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2033?
Will at least 12% of the population of Phoenix, Arizona die of extreme heat in the 2030s ?
10% chance
The Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Heatwave Kill More Than a Million around the world by 2040?
40% chance
Will a single natural disaster event kill more than 50,000 people in 2024?
13% chance
Will 1000 or more Hajj pilgrims journeying to Mecca die due to heat in 2025?
73% chance
Will the average global temperature in 2026 exceed 2025?
60% chance
Will a mass distruction happen due to extreme weather resulting at least 500 million deaths by 2025?
4% chance
Will Arizona have >80% voter turnout in the 2024 presidential election?
3% chance
Will Arizona have >95% voter turnout in the 2024 presidential election?
2% chance
Will Arizona have >90% voter turnout in the 2024 presidential election?
2% chance