Will Stoke Space fly to space by 2026?
Plus
24
Ṁ10192026
55%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Stoke Space has an interesting approach to rocket reusability, focusing on second-stage reusability first with a complex multi-engine control scheme. They recently completed a succcessful hop, with their vehicle landing intact on the first free flight.
Will they fly anything to space before 2026?
Defined as 100km altitude with the vehicle still intact and operational enough for radio telemetry. Orbit or successful recovery not required, and it need not be derived from their current work.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What's the furthest milestone we'll see with Stoke Space's NOVA in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)
Will Stoke Space propulsively land and refly a second stage?
69% chance
Will we set a new record for number of people in space by mid 2025?
40% chance
Will Gilmour Space reach orbit before 2026?
51% chance
Will Spacesteading be a thing by the end of 2025? (Read Description)
30% chance
Will Starship go to the Moon before 2026?
13% chance
Non-SpaceX reusable first stage by 2025?
80% chance
Will SpaceX launch a mission to Hubble before 2026
5% chance
Will Elon Musk go to space by the end of 2025?
6% chance
Will space tourism become mainstream by 2027?
20% chance