Will Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Price if there's peace in Ukraine?
38
Ṁ49722027
8%
Peace and Nobel
35%
Peace but no Nobel
55%
No peace, no Nobel
3%
No peace, Nobel anyway
Peace before 2027. There doesn't have to be an explicit causal relationship, just whether the two things happen.
This is a derivative market; it will resolve exactly according to these underlying markets:
Previously:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
If Trump is elected U.S. President in 2024, when will the Russia-Ukraine war end?
Will Trump win the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize iff there is a ceasefire in Ukraine before 2026? (or not if there isn't)
97% chance
If Trump is elected in 2024, will Ukraine win the war with Russia?
17% chance
Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?
10% chance
Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]
10% chance
Will Trump sign a deal with Ukraine providing military support in exchange for rare earths by the end of 2025?
90% chance
Does Trump receive Ig Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
9% chance
Will the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 be related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict?
12% chance
Will Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize by the end of 2028?
11% chance
If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
42% chance