If Donald Trump does not win the 2024 presidential election or there is a peace treaty signed concluding the Russia-Ukraine war before the election this market will resolve to N/A. If Donald Trump does win the 2024 presidential election:
This market will resolve to YES if, before November 3rd 2026, there is a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war that consists of a 30 day period where the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's daily updates report that less than 100 Russian soldiers have been killed in combat.
This market will resolve to NO otherwise.
Related:
Update 2025-10-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any cessation of fighting counts, regardless of how it comes about (including surrender scenarios). The market will resolve based on whether fighting stops, not the political circumstances that lead to it.
If the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense appears to be blatantly underreporting casualties, the creator may also consider other reliable sources to determine if fighting is actually ongoing.
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Are there any pathological or extreme cases that might technically fulfill the terms you've laid out, but that you might not pay out for violating the spirit of it?
If, for instance, Russia happens to have some renewed success in their invasion, and then Ukraine surrenders to them, would the 'peace' (well, lack of conflict) that followers be able to count towards your ceasefire here?
(For a really extreme hypothetical, imagine Russia using a nuclear weapon and Ukraine surrendering in response - the surrender would technically be a ceasefire.)
@MatthewLeong For this market it doesnโt matter how the end of the fighting comes about, just that they stop killing each other. The only edge case I can think of is if the Ukrainian MoD starts blatantly underreporting the number of Russian soldiers killed, which seems very unlikely. In that case I might also consider other reliable sources relating to how much fighting is ongoing.
@ChristopherRandles Oh thatโs a good question. I didnโt really intend that interpretation, but I agree thatโs what the description implies so Iโll count it. I will say that if there is a conclusive end to the war before the election Iโll resolve NA since thatโs a pretty ambiguous case.
@voodoo Why? Ukraine would be under more pressure. Less aid, a somewhat more russia friendly president. Plus, Trump loves making deals, he sees that as the coolest thing