Nominal or real?

@PGeyer Nominal.

@FlorinSays This also got me thinking about inflation in the next 10 years: https://manifold.markets/FlorinSays/will-the-world-economy-experience-a

Also, would you early stop this market if the world's GDP has doubled already in, say, 5 years, or would you wait to see if the economy shrinks again?

@RationalHippy It would resolve as "Yes" if that were to happen as soon as the official statistics are in.

@RationalHippy You can also use this https://manifold.markets/FlorinSays/will-the-worlds-gdp-double-in-5-yea for the shorter period.

What do you mean exactly by your quick resolution criteria? In order to know that there was no year with growth over 7%, you would have to wait for the last year. Did I misunderstand something?

@RationalHippy there's a math shortcut that helps you estimate the amount of cycles you need or the percentage required for this to happen: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rule-of-70.asp

So, for ten years, we would need around 7% growth each year for the GDP to double. For five years, this is around 14%. (70/10=7; 70/5=14)

We don't need to calculate everything if we don't have at least one year with that growth rate.

@FlorinSays OK I think I understand, this is a resolution that still happens in 2034 when all the numbers are in. The term "quick resolution" threw me off.

@RationalHippy I mean that we could probably resolve this at closing time without waiting for all the data to be there.

@RationalHippy I updated the description to make it more clear.