Question is about any current or future openAI models vs any competitor models.
If a language model exists that is undoubtedly the most accurate, reliable, capable, and powerful, that model will win. If there is dispute as to which is more powerful, a significant popularity/accessibility advantage will decide the winner. There must be public access for it to be eligible.
See previous market for more insight into my resolution plan: Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?NO
2024 recap: capabilities were "similar". Both Google and openAI models tied for first place on LLM Arena. OpenAI won because of their popularity/market dominance.
I think OpenAI will have released o4 by then. If the current trend keeps going then it's not obvious to see how anyone else would be ahead
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