Reform UK won five seats in the 2024 General Election. When will the first by-election be called in one of those seats? | Manifold

Reform UK won five seats in the 2024 General Election. When will the first by-election be called in one of those seats?

Plus

17

Ṁ1893

2029

5%

Before 01/11/2024

28%

Between 01/11/2024 and 30/06/2025

7%

After 30/06/2025 (by-election held)

61%

No by-election held in these seats before the next UK General Election

Market resolves when either of these is true:

A by-election is called in Clacton-on-Sea, Boston and Skegness, South Basildon and East Thurrock, Great Yarmouth, or Ashfield, for whatever reason.
A UK General Election is called.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇬🇧 UK General Election 2024

#Next UK General Election

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

Have aligned the market description and criteria to clarify that the date a by-election is called will be used to resolve the market.

Reform might win a fifth seat (there are still a couple of consistencies that haven’t declared). Would that count for this question as well?

If they do, I will update the question/description, yes.

They won the seat of South Basildon and East Thurrock.

Grim news, but thanks. Have updated.

Related questions

Will Reform win the next UK election?

-7% 1d16% chance

In the next UK General Election [Likely 2029] which parties will gain seats?

What Conservative/Reform UK cross-pollination will occur by the next UK general election?

When will the next UK general election be held?

Will Labour gain the necessary seats to form a government in the 2024 GE

Will Reform win less than 50 seats at the next UK General election?

Which UK Constituencies will see By-Elections in the 2024 (59th) Parliament?

When will the next UK General Election take place?

Will Reform be the official opposition after the next UK election?

Related questions

Will Reform win the next UK election?

Will Reform win less than 50 seats at the next UK General election?

In the next UK General Election [Likely 2029] which parties will gain seats?

Which UK Constituencies will see By-Elections in the 2024 (59th) Parliament?

What Conservative/Reform UK cross-pollination will occur by the next UK general election?

When will the next UK General Election take place?

When will the next UK general election be held?

Will Reform be the official opposition after the next UK election?

Will Labour gain the necessary seats to form a government in the 2024 GE

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules