In December 2024 Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed the Russian state-owned bank and AI leader Sberbank to work with China to further Russia’s AI ecosystem - https://www.cfr.org/article/china-russia-relations-january-2025. China possesses significantly stronger AI capabilities in Russia, largely within its set of highly capable technology firms. 

The risk of secondary sanctions has forced Chinese firms to reduce in practice or visibility into their operations in Russia, creating risks for any major firms seen to be furthering Russia’s AI efforts. Despite high-level government statements of Sino-Russian cooperation, no major Chinese technology company has publicly announced a formal AI partnership with a Russian entity since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Whether one of these firms is willing to run the risk and partner with Russia to accelerate its AI efforts is a key question for understanding the future AI capabilities that Russia may have access to.

Resolution criteria:

Each question resolves as Yes if that specific Chinese tech company publicly announces a formal AI partnership with a Russian entity before January 1, 2027, 00:00:00 UTC.

Each question resolves as No if that company does NOT make such an announcement before the deadline.

Qualifying Partnerships Must Meet ALL Criteria:

1. Chinese Company Definition:

• The specific company listed in the question

• Including wholly-owned subsidiaries (e.g., Alibaba Cloud counts as Alibaba Group)

2. Russian Entity Definition:

• Russian government entities, ministries, or state-owned enterprises (Sberbank, Rostec, Yandex, VK, etc.)

• Russian private companies

• Russian research institutions or universities

• Entities incorporated in Russia or majority-controlled by Russian interests

3. AI Partnership Scope:

Must explicitly focus on artificial intelligence and include at least ONE of:

Infrastructure & Compute:

• Data center construction/operation for AI workloads

• AI accelerator (GPU/TPU) supply, deployment, or cloud access

• Cloud computing infrastructure specifically for AI training or inference

• AI model training facilities or capacity

AI Models & Applications:

• Joint development or deployment of large language models (LLMs)

• Licensing or provision of AI models for Russian use

• Integration of Chinese AI models into Russian services/products

• Collaborative AI model training or fine-tuning

AI Technology Transfer:

• AI chip or hardware supply for AI applications

• Transfer of AI algorithms, architectures, or techniques

• Joint AI research and development programs with technical deliverables

• Technical cooperation on AI deployment, safety, or infrastructure

Does NOT qualify:

• General technology cooperation without AI specificity

• Pure investment/financial arrangements without operational cooperation

• Consulting or advisory services alone (unless bundled with technical cooperation)

• Historical or academic exchanges without current partnership

• One-time transactions (must be ongoing partnership/agreement)

4. Formal Partnership Definition:

• Publicly announced agreement, memorandum of understanding (MOU), contract, joint venture, strategic alliance, or cooperation framework

• Must name specific parties (the Chinese company and Russian entity)

• Must describe specific AI cooperation

• Non-binding MOUs qualify if they describe concrete AI cooperation intentions

• Must represent new or expanded cooperation announced after January 1, 2025

5. Public Announcement Requirement:

Must be announced via at least ONE of:

• Official company press release or announcement

• Chinese or Russian government announcement

• Coverage by credible international news agencies (Reuters, Bloomberg, AP, AFP, BBC, FT, WSJ)

• Chinese state media (Xinhua, China Daily, Global Times, CCTV)

• Russian state media (TASS, RIA Novosti, Interfax)

• Regulatory filings for publicly traded companies

• Official statements at conferences, forums, or public events

Timing: Only announcements made on or after January 1, 2025, 00:00:00 UTC count. Pre-existing partnerships do not count even if they continue operating.

Multiple Partnerships: If a company announces multiple qualifying partnerships, the question still resolves Yes (only one announcement needed).

Subsidiary Announcements: Announcements by wholly-owned subsidiaries count for the parent company. For example:

• Alibaba Cloud announcement counts for Alibaba Group

• Baidu AI announcement counts for Baidu

• ByteDance subsidiary announcements count for ByteDance

Government vs. Corporate: Government-to-government cooperation statements do NOT count unless they specifically name the Chinese company with concrete AI cooperation commitments.

Shell Companies/Intermediaries: Partnerships structured through third-country intermediaries count only if credible reporting confirms the specific Chinese company is the ultimate partner/beneficiary.

Cancelled Partnerships: If announced but subsequently cancelled or abandoned before any implementation, still resolves Yes (the announcement occurred).

Expansion of Pre-2025 Partnerships: For companies with pre-2025 Russia partnerships (e.g., Huawei's 2019 AI cooperation agreement), a NEW or significantly EXPANDED AI partnership announced after January 1, 2025 counts. Mere continuation of existing activities does NOT count.

Research Institution Partnerships: Partnerships between the Chinese company and Russian universities/research institutions count if they involve technical cooperation (not just academic exchanges).

Specificity Required: Vague statements like "exploring opportunities" do NOT count. Must be a concrete agreement, MOU, or partnership announcement.

Ambiguous AI Focus: If an announcement covers multiple technologies including AI, it counts if AI is explicitly mentioned as a significant component (not just mentioned in passing).

Sanctions Sensitivity: Private partnerships without public announcements do NOT count. The partnership must be publicly announced.

Joint Ventures: If the Chinese company forms a joint venture with a Russian entity focused on AI, this counts.