Will any two top AI labs merge by EOY 2027?
5
Ṁ84
2027
23%
chance

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if any two of the following AI companies merge by December 31, 2027:

  • OpenAI

  • Anthropic

  • Google AI (DeepMind)

  • xAI

  • Meta AI (Superintelligence Labs)

A merger is defined as a transaction where one company acquires another, resulting in a single combined entity under unified ownership and control. Partnerships, joint ventures, minority stake acquisitions, or talent acquisitions alone do not necessarily count as mergers, however something that clearly constitutes a merger in all but name would count. The transaction must be publicly announced and substantially underway or completed by the resolution date. If it's clearly approved and going forward, this will resolve YES, but if it's announced but there are remaining doubts on whether it will go forward by close date, it will not resolve YES. I will use my best judgment to determine whether a transaction qualifies as a merger.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules