• All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2025".

• For the 2024 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.

• You can find all the markets under the tag [2025 Forbes AI predictions].

• Note that I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2025's predictions, even if I or others disagree with his decision.

• I might bet in this market, as I have no power over the resolution.

Description of this prediction from the article:
A new administration in the U.S. will bring with it a number of policy and strategy shifts on AI. In order to predict where the AI winds will blow under President Trump, it might be tempting to focus on the president-elect’s close relationship with Elon Musk, given Musk’s central role in the AI world today.

One can imagine a number of different ways in which Musk might influence AI-related developments in a Trump administration. Given Musk’s deeply hostile relationship with OpenAI, the new administration might take a less friendly stance toward OpenAI when engaging with industry, crafting AI regulation, awarding government contracts, and so forth. (This is a real risk that OpenAI is worried about today.) On the flip side, the Trump administration might preferentially favor Musk’s own companies: for instance, slashing red tape to enable xAI to build data centers and get a leg up in the frontier model race; granting rapid regulatory approval for Tesla to deploy robotaxi fleets; and so forth.

More fundamentally, Elon Musk—unlike many other technology leaders who have Trump’s ear—takes existential AI safety risks very seriously and is therefore an advocate for significant AI regulation. He supported California’s controversial SB 1047 bill, which sought to impose meaningful restrictions on AI developers. Musk’s influence could thus lead to a more heavy-handed regulatory environment for AI in the U.S.

There is one problem with all these speculations, though. Donald Trump and Elon Musk’s cozy relationship will inevitably fall apart.

As we saw time and time again during the first Trump administration, the median tenure of a Trump ally, even the seemingly staunchest, is remarkably short—from Jeff Sessions to Rex Tillerson to James Mattis to John Bolton to Steve Bannon. (And, of course, who can forget Anthony Scaramucci’s 10-day stint in the White House?) Very few of Trump’s deputies from his first administration remain loyal to him today.

Both Donald Trump and Elon Musk are complex, volatile, unpredictable personalities. They are not easy to work with. They burn people out. Their newfound friendship has proven mutually beneficial to this point, but it is still in its honeymoon phase. I predict that, before 2025 has come to an end, the relationship will have soured.

What will this mean for the world of AI?

It will be welcome news for OpenAI. It will be unfortunate news for Tesla shareholders. And it will be a disappointment for those concerned with AI safety, as it will all but ensure that the U.S. government will take a hands-off approach to AI regulation under Trump.