Called it

Have the numbers changed in the last week or two? Is there normally an edit in December even though counting is over in all districts? Translation: with the number almost exactly 2%, is this market becoming a coin toss market, or is there inside info I am clueless about. Current status is under 2%.

this market resolves to two different things…uselectionatlas.org and polymarket (which says it reconciles to the same)…which takes priority, in case polymarket acts differently?

@PGeyer It will resolve to the resolution source, but since Polymarket is using the same resolution criteria, they will also resolve the same. Both are true.

@HillaryClinton Thank you. No rounding, right? 1.9999998% is a No, correct?

@PGeyer I would also add: per the description, 2.00% also resolves NO.

@NicoDelon 2.0000000001% resolves yes.

@HillaryClinton of course

>"Any Vote that isn't for Harris or Trump is counted."
Does that mean spoilt ballots count?

@ChristopherRandles any vote that is in the resolution source counts. No, blank votes do not count. Write ins do however.

@HillaryClinton Thanks for the answer. It would seem that you are saying a blank vote is not a vote whereas a write in is a valid vote even if the person named does not want to be president. (That is what I expected for those possibilities.)

Less clear to me was "None of these candidates" or writing in anything else that is not a name. Are these votes? The alternative being treated as invalid and not a vote? The resolution source lists 'None of these candidates' as 19625 so I that it these are counted as votes. I don't see a category listed for invalid so I presume the resolution source is excluding the write in of something other than a name as invalid and not votes and that so will this market.

1.966% at this moment, and priced at over 80% probability by the money

FYI folks Polymarket has this well over 50% currently

@JamesBaker3 It’ll be close but just under—I may be wrong!

"once finalized" means the resolution will be pushed out until states certify their results, right?

@JamesBaker3 Yes, once the states certify their final vote. Around mid december.

@HillaryClinton polymarket is using Dec 17th, though it's not clear what fraction of write-ins (from county-level sources in some states) will have been incorporated by Dave Leip on that date.

@JamesBaker3 I will resolve them the same way. The purpose of this market is to see what the price would be without whale manipulation.