Will anyone die at least 1000km from Earth before 2030? | Manifold

Will anyone die at least 1000km from Earth before 2030?

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35

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2030

17%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

If it's unknown where exactly the death occurred, there must be a >=50% chance it occurred at least that far away.

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predictedNO

predictedNO

@StevenK This is extremely clever.

In 60 years of spaceflight, there have been a total of thirteen fatal accidents, only one of which occurred "in space". These accidents have been getting less frequent over time. Rate of people going above 1000km also not very high.

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