Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing?
Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing?
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https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=902
This market resolves YES if any such award is paid, of any amount.
It resolves NO if Scott announces that scalable quantum has been conclusivly demonstrated as possible and the award is impossible to win.
If the award is invalidated for any other reason, this resolves N/A.
For a market that's only about his full $100,00 award that scalable quantum computing is impossible, see here:
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I actually think that scalable quantum computing is unlikely (with our current understanding of physics, at least) but I'd be very surprised if this resolved YES regardless.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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