Out of all the dumb leftist ideas, trying to convince us that men can become women and women can become men is certainly one of them.

This market should resolve to N/A. Intentional misgendering is no longer considered hate speech by Twitter policy, and “cis” or “cisgender” is considered a slur.

Twitter reinstated the anti-misgendering policy this year: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2024/02/x-quietly-revived-anti-misgendering-policy-that-musk-dropped-last-year/. Except, the policy has changed since the Ars Technica article was published. If you compare February (https://web.archive.org/web/20240229220758/https://help.twitter.com/en/rules-and-policies/abusive-behavior) and June (https://web.archive.org/web/20240619222133/https://help.x.com/en/rules-and-policies/abusive-behavior), you can see they have prefixed the rule with, "Where required by local laws, [...]"

The word "cisgender" is apparently even more banned than before (https://techcrunch.com/2024/05/14/on-elons-whim-x-now-treats-cisgender-as-a-slur/):

Since last June, X owner Elon Musk has claimed that the words “cis” and “cisgender” are “considered slurs” on the platform. But only more recently have these words triggered full-screen pop-ups warning users that their post might be a violation of platform rules. According to TechCrunch’s testing, this pop-up only seems to appear when using the mobile app.

Shouldn't this resolve N/A?

@CodeSolder Have their content moderation policies been meaningfully changed?

Yes

How would this resolve if trans movement achieves most of its goals and so becomes less relevant relative to other causes? (not that I think it is likely by 2028, but still)

That would count as a NO. For example, if acceptance of trans people becomes as ubiquitous as acceptance of gay people and no one argues about it anymore, that's trans ideology becoming more popular, not less.

@IsaacKing What are some examples of past movements which had lost significant ground relative to other causes?

I don’t think so, I’d expect rates of transition to continue to increase in the near term future. Plus, ridiculous as it is, the current gender ideology is currently helping trans people get what they want, so it’s not going to go away until someone figures out something more reasonable which accomplishes the same objectives.