Will websites give up on bot detection using captcha-like tasks by 2028?
Will websites give up on bot detection using captcha-like tasks by 2028?
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A "captcha-like task" is any task designed to be easily doable on a computer by a human and very difficult for bots.
If websites are still frequently using such tasks at the beginning of 2029, this market resolves NO. If they've switched over to other forms of verification like third-party documentation (e.g. a driver's license), biometric data, or given up entirely on telling bots apart from humans, it resolves YES.
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Some websites are still using barely distorted text with a line through it as a captcha and that has been defeatable for a decade or so, how about the main X providers (Google, hCaptcha, and so on) not offering / strongly discouraging those tasks?
What counts as a task? E.g., what if the "task" is providing some biometric evidence that you are the person you claim to be? Would that count?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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