What will be true about Grokipedia upon full release?
78
Ṁ9245
2030
98%
Standalone website (not just a Twitter/X feature)
59%
Administered by a partially-human editorial board
63%
right-wingers perceive that it is biased against them
36%
Released in 2026
80%
Released in 2025
98%
Will actually be called "Grokipedia"
7%
Anyone can edit
98.4%
Contains AI-generated articles
98%
Accessible without login
15%
Contains advertisements
24%
Manifold likes it, according to a poll
98.6%
Has 10,000+ articles
8%
Articles written in 10+ languages
98.6%
Contains a "Wikipedia" article
86%
Larry Sanger inserts himself into it somehow
94%
No entry for Mechahitler
90%
left-wingers perceive that it is biased against them
87%
Users will only be able to edit by prompting AI for changes
99.2%
Contains egregious, easily verified falsehoods
2%
Not released before 2030

After years of criticizing Wikipedia for what he perceives as left-wing bias, Elon Musk announced the development of "Grokipedia", which he believes will be a "massive improvement" over the existing site.

How do you think this will turn out? Add your own predictions!

Note: "release" means when the full-version is out, not beta or early-access. The V0.1 which released on October 27 does not count. A future release labelled "V1.0" would count.

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bought Ṁ10 YES

I found funny that the entry "Grokipedia" exists in Wikipedia, but not in Grokipedia.

bought Ṁ33 YES

@ItsMe it can be checked at grokipedia.com and resolved YES

bought Ṁ100 YES

@fstonemeyer my interpretation was that "entry" meant a designated article. But in cases of ambiguity, I'll leave the judgement to the person who added the answer (@JussiVilleHeiskanen).

@ItsMe I would concur with your view, but would not object to resolving at 5-10% if somebody objected strenously, but yes, a NO would be clearer. But really a dedicated entry would be a YES,

bought Ṁ180 YES

Ignore this

Keep in mind this market doesn't resolve until the full version is out (presumably V1.0).

@ItsMe why doesn't this count as the full version?

Musk described it as "Version 0.1 early beta"

bought Ṁ30 YES

@ItsMe If they remove the version 0.1 label from the homepage, does that count as a full release? Gmail was in "beta" for 5 years even after it became the #1 public email service in the world.

@fstonemeyer in that case, I would have to go off of the statements of Musk/xAI. If they consider it a beta, or they call it V0.x, then it won't count.

opened a Ṁ750 YES at 99.0% order

This article begins by talking about the dismissal of a U.S. general in 2025 before transitioning to be about an Australian political event from 1975 for no rhyme or reason.

https://archive.is/jaHL8

bought Ṁ20 NO

@KJW_01294 check out the article Walhalla (with a double you) -- straight up nazi shit

bought Ṁ1 YES

What a stupid idea Gr…ia is, I don't even want to write the whole word.

reposted

Musk says V0.1 will release on Monday. It won't resolve this market (because it's beta) but it should give an idea of what's to come.

bought Ṁ2 YES

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bought Ṁ4 NO

@ItsMe I understand this to mean there are 10 distinct LLM models in different language data sets in different languages creating the articles.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen that's one possibility. If there are user-made articles in various languages then that would also count.

reposted

Subsidized!

@ItsMe I'll put some in as well...

bought Ṁ10 YES

The name still doesn't feel real to me. Grokipedia... ugh.

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