What will be my pace if I complete the San Francisco Half-Marathon?
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Jul 28

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My roommates roped me into running the SF half-marathon. The most I've run at one time is about 5 miles.

The race is in 9 weeks. I'll try to do the recommended training for the most part. Today I ran 3.77 miles in 45 minutes, which is kinda slow (~12:00/mi).

Market is inspired by Austin's: https://manifold.markets/rachel/will-austin-finish-his-half-maratho
His pace is so good, it would be a miracle if I could beat it.

  • Update 2025-06-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that if they do not complete the run, the market will resolve to N/A.

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how will the market resolve if you don't complete the run?

sold Ṁ186 ???

Update after a week and a day:

I've done 5 total runs, the shortest of which was 3.18 miles, and today I ran 5 miles. It's been a blast running with others and hasn't been that hard yet.

On today's 5 miles, my pace was almost exactly 10:00 per mile, which is quite a bit better than my first run last week. Excited by the progress!

(Sorry I recreated the market b/c I did the numeric buckets wrong!)

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