Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States and Brazil formally announce a bilateral agreement by December 31, 2025, that specifically addresses the "Trump tariffs" imposed on most Brazilian imports in August 2025, leading to their reduction, suspension, or elimination.

This announcement must be confirmed by official statements from the White House, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), the Brazilian Presidency, or the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and widely reported by reputable international news sources.

The market will resolve to "No" if no such agreement is formally announced by December 31, 2025.

Background

In August 2025, the United States imposed new tariffs, increasing the rate on most Brazilian imports from 10% to 50%. These tariffs were justified by the U.S. administration, citing Brazil's policies and the criminal prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro as an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to U.S. national security, foreign policy, and economy.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and U.S. President Donald Trump met on October 26, 2025, on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Following the meeting, Lula stated that Trump had "guaranteed" a trade deal between the two countries and expressed optimism that a "definitive solution" could be reached "in a few days" or "faster than anyone thinks." Both leaders agreed that their teams would begin immediate technical talks to address the tariffs and related sanctions.

Considerations

While both President Trump and President Lula have expressed optimism regarding a forthcoming agreement, some reports indicate that a formal framework for a trade deal might be announced in early 2026. Traders should note that for this market to resolve "Yes," a specific, publicly declared agreement to reduce, suspend, or eliminate the tariffs must be announced by the end of 2025, rather than merely an agreement to continue discussions or a future possibility.