Will humans create AGI, either directly or indirectly, within the next 24 months?
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For the purpose of this question, AGI is defined on a human-centric scales as follows:

"Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is the representation of generalized human cognitive abilities in software so that, faced with an unfamiliar task, the AGI system could find a solution. The intention of an AGI system is to perform any task that a human being is capable of."

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What counts as 'indirectly' here?

@FelixMaps Not OP but presumably humans creating AI system that creates AGI. Don't think it matters as the market end in 3 days and it clearly didn't happen.

@JasonKuczek It seems a little boring to have this question close so long before its resolve date. Should it be reopened?

@EvanDaniel That’s a great point. This was one of my first questions. Rookie mistake. I’ll reopen it as soon as I figure out how to do that.

@JasonKuczek If you mouse over the close date in the upper right, an edit icon should appear:

@EvanDaniel Thanks for the tip!

opened a Ṁ10,000 NO at 10% order

@JasonKuczek edited close date from september 26 to october 18 because oct 18 2023 was the market creation date (and so oct 18 2025 would be 24 months later), lmk if that is wrong

@EvanDaniel @JasonKuczek hasn't been active in over a year, but it isn't likely we'll have a clear resolution to this question by the 18th. Then I think you should close it but not resolve it for some time.

@Chumchulum Why shouldn't it resolve on the 18th?

bought Ṁ100 NO

@Chumchulum "The intention of an AGI system is to perform any task that a human being is capable of", unless there's a new model release in the next few days that is way beyond current model capabilities, this is clearly false

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