Will AI creative writing have an o1 moment before 2027?
Basic
8
Ṁ1772027
70%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves yes if I judge an AI model to exceed gpt-4o in creative writing by a similar magnitude as o1 exceeds gpt-4o in advanced mathematics.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?
75% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?
49% chance
Will most critics think AI writes good poetry by the end of 2025?
26% chance
In 2025, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short story to a prompt?
75% chance
Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027
33% chance
Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?
21% chance
Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033
69% chance
Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028?
40% chance
Will AI generate a decent commercial before 2026?
70% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?
61% chance