The heavily bimodal distribution of responses here suggests to me that most of the uncertainty is in how the market will be resolved rather than on the actual material outcomes -- how much of the chaos so far actually amounts to "eliminated"?
So maybe we need a clarification on the criteria? Is what has happened to USAID already, for instance, an "elimination"?

@nonnihil thats right. As far as I know no agency has been formally eliminated yet, only gutted. Jeff provided a list of agencies to go by below. USAID is still up there.

Do we know how many have actually been eliminated so far?

Would you count USAID? It's legally required to keep 15 employees, so technically it still exists: Trump Administration Moves to Eliminate USAID With Final Cuts - The New York Times.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I don’t know I’m not the market creator. My impression is that so far zero agencies have been formally eliminated.

@traders
https://manifold.markets/JeffBerman/which-government-agencies-will-doge

Does merging 2 agencies count as abolishing one?

@ChrisMillsc5f7 Yes. Any agency that is eliminated may have some of its work taken up by another agency. It's still a reduction in the number of government agencies. We don't want to get into debates about how much of a defunct agency's work is still happening under another banner.

What counts as an agency?

@KimberlyWilberLIgt, good question. Let's use this list:
https://lda.congress.gov/ld/help/default.htm?turl=Documents%2FAppNames.htm