Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, following the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections, the Republican Party holds at least 218 seats, thereby securing a majority in the House. Conversely, it will resolve to "No" if the Republicans hold fewer than 218 seats. The official election results, as reported by the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, will serve as the primary source for resolution. (ballotpedia.org)

Background

The 2026 midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026, will determine the composition of the 120th United States Congress. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be contested. As of June 2025, the Republican Party holds a narrow majority with 220 seats, while the Democratic Party holds 213 seats. (ballotpedia.org)

Considerations

Several factors could influence the outcome of the 2026 House elections:

• Retirements and Candidacies: A number of incumbents from both parties have announced retirements or intentions to run for other offices, potentially affecting party dynamics and election outcomes. (en.wikipedia.org)

• Redistricting: Legal challenges and mid-decade redistricting in states like Florida, Georgia, and Ohio may alter district boundaries, impacting electoral competitiveness. (en.wikipedia.org)

• Political Climate: Internal party dynamics, such as the reported tensions between former President Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk, may influence voter sentiment and party cohesion leading up to the elections. (reuters.com)

Traders should monitor these developments, as they could significantly affect the Republican Party's ability to maintain or expand its majority in the House.

• Update 2025-10-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator assumes all elected Representatives will be sworn in promptly after the election. If circumstances arise where Representatives are not sworn in (e.g., refusal to seat elected members), the creator will address those circumstances individually at the time.