Will a member of US congress physically attack another member of congress before 2026?
Will a member of US congress physically attack another member of congress before 2026?
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This will resolve YES based on media reports of a member of the United States Congress physically hitting (e.g. smacking, punching, shoving) another member of the US Congress with their body or any other object. Former members of congress or aides would not count. An attempt to hit another member that is thwarted before physical contact is made would also not count.
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Would the incident where Kevin McCarthy allegedly elbowed Tim Burchett resolve as a yes?
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tim-burchett-kevin-mccarthy-elbow-in-kidneys/
@SimonWentzell Yes. The reporter Claudia Grisales said that Tim Burchett "stumbled forward," i.e. Kevin McCarthy made contact. It's unclear if it was an accident, but I'm going to defer to the victim's interpretation.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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