Plea bargains don't count because they give up the right to appellate review of the constitutionality of the original charges, which would be very dubious after the Ashcroft precedent.
Resolves YES if the wikipedia page here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_status_of_fictional_pornography_depicting_minors#United_States
references such a case at resolution time.
Update 2025-07-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Based on an analysis of recent cases, the creator has specified what will be considered a qualifying conviction:
A conviction resulting from procedural issues (e.g., an incompetent lawyer failing to raise the Ashcroft v. Free Speech Coalition precedent) will not count.
A conviction that is later overturned on appeal will not count.
Update 2025-07-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES in a specific scenario involving a plea bargain, which was previously excluded. This applies if a defendant pleads guilty after losing a pre-trial constitutional appeal, where the appeal was lost because the Supreme Court had already overturned the Ashcroft v. Free Speech Coalition precedent.
1,000
3.00New cases since the creation of this market:
Perez (2023): He was already in prison when he did it and his incompetent lawyer never raised the Ashcroft vs Free Speech Coalition precedent. Instead they made some obviously frivolous argument about jurisdiction that the district court rejected. If the incompetent lawyer never made the right argument in the first place, the appellate court generally can't make it for them.
Grecco v. State (2024)
Conviction overturned on appeal, citing Ashcroft.
I don’t think this is quite operationalizing “this question will be legally tested and it will be found constitutional to ban it”.
For one, it’s not necessarily the case that a plea bargain precludes a constitutional challenge to a law. You could retain the right to challenge in the plea agreement. I think you have to explicitly give the right up to be unable to challenge the law.
It is reasonably possible perhaps likely that if the Supreme Court does revisit the issue it will be in this situation.
Alternatively what if this issue is litigated pre-trial, with an appeallate decision saying the law is constitutional, then, on losing the constitutional appeal, the defendant pleads?
@NateWatson Pleading guilty to any charge almost always results in giving up all rights to appeal a conviction on thar charge.