Please submit people who are notable for having opinions on Twitter, and might conceivably be the kind of person who would use Manifold.
If they start using Manifold and get into Masters by 2025, their name resolves yes.
If they don't join or don't get to at least Gold(to show they are active), their name resolves N/A.
If they join and get to Gold but not to Masters, their name resolves no. You can also submit people already on Manifold who haven't made it into Masters, like Eliezer.
I will also N/A any names that I think are incredibly unlikely to become active on Manifold, like Elon.
If Leagues is restructered, they need to get into whatever league I judge to be most equivalent to making it into Masters in December 2023.
As far as I know, only @ZviMowshowitz has done this successfully. Who else from Twitter would do well at Manifold?
1,000
3.00Since Yudkowsky has been demoted to gold league, could you resolve him to NO as it is impossible for him to advance to Masters in 2024 according to the current rules?
Will the market resolve to Yes, if a person gets promoted to master in the december league of 2024?
The fact that I just finish reading HPMOR and then I stumble upon this market...
I feel like Eliezer Yudkowsky is a good bet.
In case a person makes it to Masters before 2025 but then is demoted before 2025, will it the question resolve to Yes?
I'm doubtful that @EliezerYudkowsky is actually the public figure Eliezer Yudkowsky The actual Eliezer Yudkowsky doesn't sound likely to hang around small online outposts under their real name. Plue the Manifold user asked ma a whompingly dumb question in my Sam Altman market
Eliezer seems like a safe bet, given the size of his portfolio and the fact he is currently at diamond statistically even if he only goes on manifold a couple times a month he might get to masters at some point
@DylanSlagh For the record I am very doubtful about @EliezerYudkowsky but I'm confident @Mira is not Mira Mursti.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00