Manifest 2025 will take place June 6th to June 8th in Berkely California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the Manifest conference itself and not Less Online or Summer Camp.
Add anything that you think would be
Fun to predict, might or might not happen
Reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)
Respects people's privacy
I will attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. But any staff or mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.
Markets will generally resolve according to the common sense expectation of how they were intended, not on technicalities. For example, a temporary tattoo would not count for the crane tattoo option. Market manipulation is encouraged as long as it is pro-social. You should also expect liberal use of N/A resolutions in ambiguous cases.
1,000
3.00@Joshua This will inevitably be disputed so I'll resolve not to trade on it, but basically it should be Yes by default unless it's a very unambiguous No event.
@Joshua (entirely separate from this option) we ought to have a running list of all the Somethings that have happened over the last few years, to establish proper base rates
My planned orgy is now up to 9 participants but we have agreed on the following procedure. On the second day of Manifest, we will gather in my room and run random.random() in Python (latest stable version, 3.13 currently).
If this number is less than or equal to 0.69, we will have the orgy. Otherwise, we will not, and moreover we will attempt to prevent other orgies from happening.
@No_uh I would not say these prop bets have basically any resemblance to the experience of the typical attendee
@elienops wait, does this count anyone named jesus, and by extension through etymology, anyone named joshua?
@TheAllMemeingEye getting a little too pedantic early on lol - the prop bets are fun and up for argument in resolution proposals when the time comes
maybe someone will get their hands on @Joshua's passport and we'll learn his birth name is, in fact, Jesus
@TheAllMemeingEye At first it was just a riff on Jesus Christ returning in 2025, but honestly, if someone legally named Jesus attends dressed as Jesus & stays in character, who am I to deny it... I'd gladly lose for the sake of that hyperstition 😂
getting a little too pedantic early on lol
This is manifold, there is literally no such thing as too pedantic here
Jesus Christ, of Nazarus
Ah yes, Nazarus, the lesser known twin brother of Lazarus who Jesus controversially brought back to death instead