Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Manifold

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Basic

18

Ṁ1716

2028

1D

1W

1M

ALL

47%

Vance is not nominated

28%

Vance is nominated and loses

25%

Vance is nominated and wins

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#🇺🇸 US Politics

#Republican Party

#2028 US Presidential Election

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I'm a fan of this ternary market structure. It's basically "Given nomination, will he win?" but with a first-class "not nominated" result instead of the hackish n/a.

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