related, I made a free-response market for Labor leadership:

1. Australians tend to re-elect governments for at least one term. The last time a federal government only lasted one term was 1931.

2. Australian voters are good at distinguishing between their support for governments versus the referendums they put forward. Past Australian PMs (e.g. Hawke) have lost referendums without much effect on their overall support.

3. Even as polling for the Voice has fallen, support for Labor overall is pretty stable.

4. Head-to-head, Albanese is more popular than Dutton.

5. Far less leadership tensions compared to recent past Australian governments.

Think there's a good chance the voice fails and he doesn't even make it to 2025.

@Daniel_MC He has certainly invested a lot of political stock into the referendum