Resolves YES if China invades Taiwan.
Resolves 50% if a human steps on the Moon.
Resolves NO if an offensive nuclear explosion happens.
Whichever event happens first after the market opening resolves this market. If nothing happens before the market closure, then the market is prolongated +2 years, repeatedly.
This market is an exercise in calculating more complicated expected values and encourages people not only to predict Whether something happens, but also whether the event comes sooner than others.
1,000
3.00@KongoLandwalker I was making a pun about the ambiguity in the word "Offensive", meaning both "with the objective of harming someone else" and "upsetting"
@KongoLandwalker Ok, but what if Taiwan nukes China in response to China invading, simultaneously. Would the timing of the nuke explosion be weighed against first landing of chinese marines or would it be the launch of the nuke vs. when the invasion order was given.