Will economic inactivity in the UK be substantially worse (>=22.5%) in the 2025 Feb-Apr period? | Manifold

Will economic inactivity in the UK be substantially worse (>=22.5%) in the 2025 Feb-Apr period?

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7

Ṁ987

resolved Jul 19

Resolved

NO

1D

1W

1M

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The precise question is: Will the 2025 FEB-APR UK working-age economic inactivity rate be 22.5% or above?

It's just a bet on a future datum from this time series:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/economicinactivity/timeseries/lf2s/lms

22.1, 22.3, 22.1, 22.2, 21.9, 21.8 so far this year (2024 JAN-MAR to JUN-AUG rolling averages). So 2024 FEB-APR it was 22.3, and 2023 FEB-APR it was 21.4.

It seems to me like this data will be released around mid-2025, hence the closing date.

(So a Yes ~ economic inactivity will increase, a No ~ economic inactivity will decrease)

(I have initially bet Yes up to 66% new probability)

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@LeoWebb @mods this can resolve NO now, Feb-Apr has been released and was 21.3%. Creator seems to have been inactive for eight months.

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