Background
On October 12, 2024, UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was assassinated in what appears to be a targeted attack. According to law enforcement, the suspect Luigi Mangione allegedly carried out a premeditated attack. As of October 15, 2024, there have been 58 incidents of school shootings in the United States this year.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES if a CEO of any publicly traded company is assassinated before 5 separate school shooting incidents occur in the United States. It will resolve NO if 5 school shootings occur before any CEO assassination.
Will use mainstream outlet reporting for CEO killing and https://k12ssdb.org
for school stastistics. stastistics.
Update 2024-11-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The CEO assassination must be of a US publicly traded company
The assassination must be widely believed to be targeting the CEO position as reported by mainstream media
Deaths from personal feuds, crimes of passion, petty crimes (like robbery) will not count as assassinations for market resolution
Update 2024-14-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - School shootings will be counted based on the following criteria:
Must occur on school property (including buildings, fields, parking lots, stadiums, buses)
Must involve at least one person being shot (not including the shooter)
Accidental discharges count if someone is shot
Does not count if the only shooter is law enforcement or school security
This definition aligns with the source used for the initial count of 58 incidents mentioned in the description
1,000
3.00@noonglade Really needs clarification. WaPo once included an incident where campus police shot a sword wielding moron in their "school shooting database".
@noonglade the description contradicts itself. It claims that there have been 58 incidents this year, but then cites the notorious everything-is-a-shooting source K-12 School Shooting Database, which falsely claims far more have occured. The most reliable source for what we consider to be a school shooting is EducationWeek, which says that there have been 38 this year so far.
@PeterNjeim The discrepancy in the description is because I let the Manifold LLM integration generate it and only briefly checked that there was a source. I picked the k12ssb database as it seemed comprehensive and assumed I could set the appropriate threshold to filter it to that source.
However, @traders it seems that the K12SSDB data are not as accessible as I was hoping. I have requested access to the raw data through their contact form, but they might not deem it valid as this is far outside my actual field. Please let me know if anyone is more directly in this area or already has access.
The 58 number pulled by the LLM was likely from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1462731/number-of-school-shootings-us/
Letting it generate any part of the text was probably a mistake.
I investigated that stastista source more this morning and found that it requires $199 to see the primary source and access the data. However, based on this page: https://www.statista.com/statistics/971506/number-k-12-school-shootings-us-state/ it seems they are also using K12SSDB, so it's likely the same for both, and my intention is to filter that data to match the 58 number is probably what is happening if you pay the $199.
Conclusion: Considering the description as written and the database I said I would use, I think the most fair option is to use the cutoff defined for the โ58โ figure and then the K12SSDB data as previously indicated.
The cutoff on the stastista page is,
The source defines school shootings as incidents of gun violence which occurred on school property and at least one person was shot, not including the shooter. School property includes, but is not limited to, buildings, fields, parking lots, stadiums and buses. Accidental discharges of firearms are included, as long as at least one person is shot, but not if the sole shooter is law enforcement or school security.
This is relatively permissive but is most aligned with the description as given. School shootings are not necessarily mass shootings and at least one child or teacher getting shot vs one CEO getting shot is the spirit of what I wanted to ask in the question.
If anyone disagrees and already traded, Iโm happy to work something out and apologize for the LLM sloppiness.
I am also open to alternative databases, provided they are permissive enough to align with the 58 figure as that was established in the description already but the ideal is sticking with the one I indicated I would use at the time (provided we can access it).
@snazzlePop Looks like it from the description, yes.
The angle shot I see is asking if it has to be a US traded company or if any company on any stock exchange in the world counts.
Currently, I read it as the whole world of publically traded companies being fair game.
@snazzlePop USA only, yes. I should clarify that the CEO assassination should be a CEO of a publicly traded company where the assassin is widely believed to be acting based on the position as reported by mainstream media rather than a personal feud, crime of passion, petty crime, etc.
If a random small business owner gets killed in a robbery, that will not resolve YES, for example.