Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2026, the UK Labour government implements a formal policy imposing a net migration cap below 150,000 individuals per year. The policy must be officially announced and documented by the government. If no such policy is enacted by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No". Verification will be based on official government publications and reputable news sources.

Background

In 2024, the UK experienced a significant reduction in net migration, with figures dropping from 860,000 in 2023 to 431,000, primarily due to stricter visa regulations affecting work and study routes. (reuters.com) Despite this decline, net migration remains substantially above pre-pandemic levels, which were typically between 200,000 and 300,000. (migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk)

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has expressed a commitment to further reducing net migration. In May 2025, the Labour government introduced a white paper titled "Restoring Control over the Immigration System," outlining measures aimed at decreasing net migration. These measures include extending the residency requirement for citizenship from five to ten years, phasing out the recruitment of foreign care workers by 2028, increasing the immigration skills charge by 32%, and reducing the post-graduation work period for international students from two years to 18 months. (reuters.com)

Considerations

While the Labour government has implemented policies to reduce net migration, it has not specified a target figure or cap. The absence of a declared numerical cap below 150,000 means that, as of now, the market would resolve to "No." However, traders should monitor official government announcements and policy changes, as the situation may evolve before the resolution date.