AI Generated description, reviewed by me

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before 23:59 GMT on December 31, 2026, the UK Home Office formally enacts a minimum income threshold above £40,000 for sponsoring a partner, spouse, or family member under the Family visa route (Appendix FM) of the Immigration Rules.

To qualify:

- The change must be legally binding and published in official government documentation, such as:

- Updates to the Immigration Rules on gov.uk,

- Statutory instruments,

- Official Home Office or Parliamentary publications,

- Or confirmation by reputable news organisations (e.g. BBC, The Times, Financial Times).

- Threshold must apply to sponsors of family members, including:

- Spouses or civil partners,

- Fiancés(e)s,

- Unmarried partners,

- Dependent children (if covered by the general income rule).

Notes:

- Announced but not enacted thresholds do not resolve the market "Yes".

- Refugee family reunion visas do not count — this market applies only to the Family Visa route under Appendix FM.

- If the threshold reaches exactly £40,000, the market resolves "No". It must exceed £40,000.

Background

- April 2024 – The Conservative government raised the minimum income requirement (MIR) for sponsoring a spouse or partner under the Family visa (Appendix FM) from £18,600 to £29,000, with further planned increases to £34,500 and £38,700.

- July 2024 – The newly elected Labour government paused further planned increases, maintaining the MIR at £29,000 and commissioning the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) to review the financial requirement.

- June 10, 2025 – The MAC published its Family Visa Financial Requirements Review, recommending a lower MIR, ideally between £23,000 and £28,000 (with a central estimate around £24,000–£25,000). The committee argued this better balances economic self-sufficiency with the right to family life, and warned that adopting the £38,700 threshold would‑ or could contradict human rights obligations (e.g. Article 8 ECHR).

- As of July 2025, the MIR remains at £29,000, with no official plans to increase it further. The government is reviewing MAC recommendations and said it will update rules “later this year” — though changes are being implemented through secondary legislation (Immigration Rules) rather than Acts of Parliament.

- Key context:

- The current MIR affects spouses, partners, and dependent children under Appendix FM — not refugee family reunion.

- The MAC warns lowering MIR could increase net migration by 1–3%, but notes current rates remain among the highest globally.

- Labour’s 2025 White Paper also includes proposals to tighten English-language requirements, extend the period to ten years for ILR, and enhance enforcement capacity.