Will Eliud Kipchoge ever win the NYC or Boston marathon?
Basic
8
Ṁ2798
2027
10%
chance

Kipchoge has already won Berlin, Chicago, London and Tokyo. He's recently run but not won Boston. The only annual major he has yet to race is New York City, which takes place in November. He said he is still undecided about NYC and is considering running Boston again in 2024.

Updates: See clarifications in comments.

Resolves YES if he ever wins the NYC or Boston title.

Updated (10/31/2025): resolves NO if he hasn’t won either NYC or Boston before he officially retires.

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@traders I know bizarre things can happen but I’ll take it that if, by the time Kipchoge announces he has retired, he has not won either, he never will, and so this can resolve. I will not wait until his death or even until close date.

@traders I know bizarre things can happen but I’ll take it that if, by the time Kipchoge announces he has retired, he has not won either, he never will, and so this can resolve. I will not wait until his death or even until close date.

Clarification: I realize the intended meaning of this question doesn’t come out unambiguously. I meant to ask if he’d win one of the majors he hasn’t won yet (NYC or Boston), but I can see why someone would think winning yet another edition of Berlin would count. If anyone’s bet on the latter assumption and exits at a loss, let me know and I’ll send you a managram.

FWIW I think he’ll end up winning at least New York if he puts his mind to it, and honestly I’m disappointed he didn’t this year instead of chasing a silly WR at Berlin.

predictedYES
predictedNO
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