OpenAI is reportedly in negotiations to acquire Windsurf, an AI-powered coding tool, for approximately $3 billion. This market resolves to 'Yes' if OpenAI officially announces the completion of the acquisition by December 31, 2026. Source
Update 2025-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market may resolve to No before the closing date if Sam Altman publicly states that the acquisition will not happen.
Update 2025-07-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that because Cognition has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Windsurf, this market will resolve to No.
1,000
3.00Wow, an absolute shift. Shout out to everyone that had No the whole time.
To be clear: Windsurf is still a functioning company and OpenAI could still acquire them. This market likely won’t resolve until 2026 or until Sam Altman gets on a podcast and says something to the affect of “The acquisition will never happen”.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen As of today, June 6, 2025, the acquisition of Windsurf by OpenAI has been widely reported as an agreement to acquire, but the deal was explicitly stated as not yet finalized or closed in reports from early May 2025.
Large acquisitions like this typically involve a period after the initial agreement where legal, regulatory (like antitrust reviews), and financial due diligence are completed. Neither OpenAI nor Windsurf have made a formal public announcement that the deal has officially closed.