Resolves 100% to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the Electoral College in 2028, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the Twelfth Amendment.
This market may resolve prior to official certification of the electoral college votes if the election has been called by all major decision desks.
Additional likely candidates will be added by the house as necessary and will split off from "other". Please leave a comment if you have any suggestions.
See also:
Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)
Who will win the 2028 United States presidential election?
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3.00Can you add the option for "No election to be held."
another market on the same thing: https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/who-will-be-elected-president-in-20
oh. I misread
:/
I'd like public submissions, but I'll suggest Ted Cruz as an option.
40% is definitely too high. Even if you have her current odds at 60, this suggests she would have a 70% chance of victory in 2028.
I tend to agree, however, these might not be uncorrelated probabilities. Given that Kamala Harris wins in 2024, she's more likely to be a strong candidate who could win reelection (especially given economic headwinds, etc)
Also, even if she loses this year, she's likely to be the democratic nominee in 2028 as long as she doesn't completely fumble it. Democrats will remember how quickly she was able to turn the vibes, energy, and polling around from what felt like almost a certain loss (not to mention the fundraising). She'll predictably make a case in this scenario that if only she had had the time to run a full campaign, she could have secured a victory.
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00