another market on the same thing: https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/who-will-be-elected-president-in-20

When people bet on Other, do they really mean RFK? or are there other, Other candidates in mind?

definitely most don't mean RFK. He will almost certainly never win any presidential election

@V4D0NTH8 This market is for 2028 bruh

oh. I misread

vivek should be added

:/

2024 elections aren't even done and you are running 2028 already lol..

Shit I misread. Now, the "others" option makes sense lmao

I'd like public submissions, but I'll suggest Ted Cruz as an option.

JD Vance/Marco Rubio, with Rubio being the Secretary of State when tapped

40% is definitely too high. Even if you have her current odds at 60, this suggests she would have a 70% chance of victory in 2028.

I tend to agree, however, these might not be uncorrelated probabilities. Given that Kamala Harris wins in 2024, she's more likely to be a strong candidate who could win reelection (especially given economic headwinds, etc)

Also, even if she loses this year, she's likely to be the democratic nominee in 2028 as long as she doesn't completely fumble it. Democrats will remember how quickly she was able to turn the vibes, energy, and polling around from what felt like almost a certain loss (not to mention the fundraising). She'll predictably make a case in this scenario that if only she had had the time to run a full campaign, she could have secured a victory.

I don't get it...why 34% on other?