Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the political party that secures the highest number of seats in the Dutch House of Representatives during the 2025 general elections. Official election results published by the Electoral Council of the Netherlands (Kiesraad) will serve as the definitive source for resolution. If the elections are not held in 2025, the market will resolve as N/A.

Background

The Dutch political landscape features several prominent parties:

• Party for Freedom (PVV): A right-wing nationalist party led by Geert Wilders, known for its strong stance on immigration and Euroscepticism. (en.wikipedia.org)

• People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD): A center-right liberal party that emphasizes free-market policies and individual freedoms. (en.wikipedia.org)

• GroenLinks–PvdA (GL/PvdA): An alliance between the GreenLeft (GroenLinks) and the Labour Party (PvdA), focusing on social democracy and green politics. (en.wikipedia.org)

• Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA): A center to center-right Christian democratic party with conservative values. (en.wikipedia.org)

In the 2023 general elections, the PVV emerged as the largest party with 37 seats, followed by GL/PvdA with 25 seats, VVD with 24 seats, and CDA with 5 seats. (en.wikipedia.org)

Considerations

The Dutch political system is characterized by proportional representation, leading to a multi-party system where coalition governments are common. Shifts in public opinion, emerging political movements, and current events can significantly influence election outcomes. Additionally, alliances between parties, such as the GL/PvdA collaboration, can impact the distribution of seats.