Did OpenAI make a breakthrough in Q* learning dramatically shortening AGI timelines?
Basic
12
Ṁ283Jan 1
21%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will resolve true if evidence shows that before Sam Altman was fired, OpenAI made a breakthrough in combining Q* learning with LLMs that led to discontinuous capabilities advance.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?
4% chance
Will OpenAI claim that it has achieved AGI in 2025?
4% chance
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?
11% chance
when will OpenAI have announced they have achieved AGI?
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
35% chance
Will the breakthrough(s) mentioned in the OpenAI board letter go to history as a pivotal step on the path to AGI?
56% chance
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)
85% chance
Will the first AGI build on some novel aspect of the Q* 'breakthrough' that reportedly contributed to the Altman firing?
41% chance
Will OpenAI abandon the goal of building AGI before 2030?
13% chance
@iruletheworlmo (user on X) recently claimed that openai has achieved AGI
do you agree with this claim?
7% chance