Will the first AGI build on some novel aspect of the Q* 'breakthrough' that reportedly contributed to the Altman firing? | Manifold

Will the first AGI build on some novel aspect of the Q* 'breakthrough' that reportedly contributed to the Altman firing?

Plus

13

Ṁ701

2031

41%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves to, uh, consensus of machine learning experts when the first AGI is known

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

There's a lot of things that are potentially hard to connect clearly here

bought Ṁ75 YES

I think this is pretty likely. inference-time compute will be used a lot in the SOTA models

If someone still agrees with the <15% figure, bet against me

however they'll almost certainly never confirm that o1 comes out of the Q* developments so will the o1 tech count for the purpose of this market or no?

Related questions

Is the Reuters report about AI breakthrough Q* contributing to Sam Altman's firing accurate?

Does OpenAI's Q* 'breakthrough' represent a significant advance in AI capabilities?

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

Will Q* be legally considered AGI?

Will AI create the first AGI?

Did the board of OpenAI recieve a letter about the Q* AI 'breakthrough'?

Will the first AGI be built by Sam Altman?

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled?

Related questions

Is the Reuters report about AI breakthrough Q* contributing to Sam Altman's firing accurate?

Did the board of OpenAI recieve a letter about the Q* AI 'breakthrough'?

Does OpenAI's Q* 'breakthrough' represent a significant advance in AI capabilities?

Will the first AGI be built by Sam Altman?

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Will Q* be legally considered AGI?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Will AI create the first AGI?

Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules