Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny some entities) | Manifold

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny some entities)

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From https://metaculus.com/questions/17185/deny-some-entities/

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I would be shocked if there are no ITAR-restricted trained AI models in existence today. ITAR restrictions go down to, like, the part numbers of jet engine parts. Does this market require that the restriction be on ALL trained models? or would restrictions on a single model count?

@Adam (this question is tough because if it's "all models" then this market should be at 0% because nobody's gonna restrict LeNet; if it's "any model" then again I think this should probably already be resolved yes)

@Adam Remember that ITAR specifically does not require designation; many documents are "born restricted" from an ITAR perspective.

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