TikTok Ban Endgame: Which will happen first?
Plus
147
Ṁ44k2029
44%
None of these will happen by EOY 2028
19%
The TikTok "ban" will be rendered unenforceable by courts (with little chance of appeal/overturn)
19%
TikTok will become unavailable in Apple/Google app stores in the US for at least 30 days
14%
TikTok will be sold to a non-Chinese company
3%
The TikTok "ban" will go at least a year without movement toward becoming law
1.6%
The TikTok "ban" will be vetoed by a president (with little chance of override)
Will resolve to the first thing that definitely happens
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@MichaelBlume Good market, especially with the bill looking very likely to pass! I'm adding some subsidy and boosting!
@DavidFWatson Let's go with a majority of smartphone users in the US will not be able to download TikTok from their preferred app store.
@MichaelBlume So since it's now signed into law, that option is guaranteed to resolve NO, right?
Related questions
Related questions
Will TikTok be banned in the United States for the majority of the population by the end of 2024?
5% chance
Will TikTok be banned in the US or forced to change ownership by this month?
What will be the status of TikTok in the US on April 1st 2025?
What will happen wrt tiktok in the US by EOY?
Will TikTok get banned in the United States?
51% chance
Will TikTok be banned in the US by the end of 2025?
34% chance
Who will win the TikTok vs The US Government case to stop the TikTok ban?
If the TikTok ban takes effect, will ByteDance divest it OR shut it down in the U.S?
Tiktok ban - How many other countries will ban tiktok before 2025 (app must be unavailable in the country)
If the TikTok "ban" bill passes, will its enforcement be blocked by courts?
21% chance