Will Ukrainian frontline collapse until EOY 2024?

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Dec 31

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For the bet to resolve as «yes» anything of the following should happen:

There must be an official acknowledgement from either:
- The Ukrainian high command
- A senior government official
- A consensus from 3 of the following 5 reputable international news sources: BBC, Reuters, AP, AFP, The New York Times
- Crowdsourced maps, like ISW or Deepstatemap
Clearly stating that Ukrainian forces have retreated from or lost control of at least 25km of a significant frontline since February 20, 2024.
"Significant frontline" is defined as any of the 5 currently active frontlines as of February 20, 2024:
- Northern Donetsk (Slovyansk)
- Southern Donetsk (Pokrovsk)
- Luhansk (Kupiansk)
- Kherson
- Zaporizhzhia
"Loss of control" means Ukrainian forces have completely retreated from or can no longer resist advancing opposing forces in the defined territory. As evidenced by verifiable photo/video confirmation from journalists from at least 2 of the approved international news sources above.
Any ceasefire agreements must be formally announced by both the Ukrainian government and Russian state sources. Including explicit reference to cessation of fighting due to breakdown of a specific named frontline in the exact ceasefire text.

The bet will be resolved by December 31, 2024 or earlier.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇷🇺 Russia

#🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war

#Ukraine

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25km retreat is an interesting definition of collapse. You might also want to sync this with new directions such as Kharkiv

@abra Retreating from the border villages and even Vovchansk cannot be counted as a collapse of a frontline because the UAF can still successfully resist advancing opposing forces and the breakthrough distance is strategically insignificant. Partial encirclement of Kharkiv however would count.