Resolves YES if the sum of @Mira and @MiraBot 's all-time profit graph on Manifold Markets is greater than 1 million at any time on or before December 31, 2023. Otherwise resolves NO.
In the unlikely event it's so close it's uncertain whether it occurred or not (e.g., different APIs give different numbers, some of which are YES and some are NO; or floating point rounding error across all bets), then it resolves 50%.
There are mechanisms to manipulate profit graphs (e.g., buying YES shares at 1% on a fake market up through 99% and closing a market). Rather than itemize every possible scenario, any specific market can be disputed. In case of a dispute, a poll will be created asking "Is X market intended to manipulate Mira's profit graph?". If the poll rules it is manipulative, Mira's profit on market X will be removed from the profit graph. Only public markets are valid.
If the profit graph temporarily shows 1 million due to a bug, that doesn't count. "Bug" means that the displayed portfolio value as of that time is inconsistent with a manually-computed portfolio rollup using my entire transaction history and market resolution history.
Borrowed money from others doesn't directly influence the profit graph, so is not considered here. Only profits from markets do, and those are covered by the poll mechanism.
Profits(realized or unrealized) are considered valid except for exactly these 3 cases:
A "bug" as defined above
Profit(realized or unrealized) on a market ruled manipulative
A private market
1,000
3.00It looks like there was a temporary profit spike for 3 hours in /firstuserhere/will-firstuserhere-break-the-265-da caused by some unrealized profit manipulation.
Some of these personal goals markets have independent verification, like /firstuserhere/will-firstuserhere-coauthor-a-neuri . But breaking a streak after running out forgiveness points feels like "this market resolves however I feel like". Do we exclude these markets from the calculation?
In case of a dispute, a poll will be created asking "Is X market intended to manipulate Mira's profit graph?". If the poll rules it is manipulative, Mira's profit on market X will be removed from the profit graph.
I'll include a poll below this comment on whether these markets should be included in the calculation, and won't vote in it myself.
@Mira Like this comment if you think the 271+ streak market should be included in the calculation.
@ShadowyZephyr Ah yeah, originally it was "same rules as this market but for 1 million":
Then I copy-pasted it and forgot to change it.
@Mira is "probably wait 24 hours" part of the resolution criteria? Please be clear and put anything that affects this market (like the clarification of any time in 2023) in the description.
@TobyBW For "public markets": You can use the API or manually tally all my markets at the time if it's not obvious. It's intended as a failsafe more than a convenience. By querying every bet from every market I've traded in and replaying them forward, it should theoretically be possible to reconstruct my exact unrealized profit at any time.
There's no 24 hours requirement - if there's a dispute, the poll mechanism is responsible for disgorging any markets. So a specific market must be identified and voted on, there is always a specific computable set of numbers being considered, and the poll merely decides which one is selected.
@firstuserhere Any time, but if somebody tries to manipulate it by e.g. offering to send me money and laundering profits through a fake market, the anti-manipulation rules from the other market are still in effect.
I'll probably wait 24 hours too to confirm it sticks.