Will an LLM break 1400 ELO on LMSys before February? | Manifold

Will an LLM break 1400 ELO on LMSys before February?

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Feb 2

44%

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Google currently leads with Gemini -- which has two models at around 1370

But OpenAI just announced O3 -- which is getting great marks on things like hard science questions.
https://deepnewz.com/ai-modeling/openai-unveils-o3-o3-mini-models-exceeding-human-performance-on-arc-agi-4f05e4f7

The resolution is simple. Will and LMSys update contain a model with 1400 ELO? Cutoff is last day in January (East Coast time).

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Worth noting: this market is essentially https://manifold.markets/bobbill/will-any-llm-outrank-gpt4-by-150-el but with a 1 month later close date

Will any LLM outrank GPT-4 by 150 Elo in LMSYS chatbot arena before 2025?

2% chance. https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard If GPT-4.5 and reaches 150 Elo above GPT-4 market resolves yes. If at any point any llm / chatbot reaches this threshold, market resolves yes. I will not bet in this market.

I would recommend rewording the title to before february

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

also @Moscow25 wanna bet more at 55%? Got a limit up for an hour or so

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Which organization will have the top LLM on LMSys on March 1st?

What organization will top the LLM leaderboards on LMArena at end of 2025? 🤖📊

EOY 2025: Will open LLMs match closed-source LLMs on coding to within 50 ELO points?

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

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400-point pwn solved by an LLM by 2025

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