Will Gukesh Dommaraju beat Ding Liren in the 2024 World Chess Championship?

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Ṁ390k

resolved Dec 12

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YES

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It looks like the chess WC is back on.

Due to start on November 25th in Singapore.
https://deepnewz.com/chess/ding-liren-to-defend-title-against-gukesh-fide-world-championship-starting-25-6bbcc874

For those who don't follow chess closely
Ding won the world championship a while ago, and hasn't been in great form recently

Gukesh has been crushing it -- including recently at Chess Olympiad which India won in dominant fashion

Betting sites have Gukesh between 3-1 and 8-1 favorite...

Basically most people think Gukesh can't lose, and Ding can't win.

However -- both are top 2700+ ELO players. Ding has slide to #23 in the world (to Gukesh's #5) but that's still only a 50 point difference.
https://2700chess.com/

Also as the defending champion Ding wins if the match ends in a tie.

Hence the market is if Gukesh can win. Ding needs only a tied match to hold on to his championship.

Gukesh is also still a teenager. If he wins, he'd be the youngest champion ever, beating Gary Kasparov's record (age 20 / 21 I think). Maybe the nerves will get to him, especially if Ding turns out to be tougher than he expects...

We will post updates and more information here, and make this a Premium market.

Let us know if you want to see more markets on individual games, margin of victory, etc...

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):

Tiebreaks will count - Gukesh can win by winning the tiebreaks even if classical portion is tied
If match ends in a tie for any other reason (e.g. cancellation), Ding remains champion and market resolves NO

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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GG guys. Quite the WP swings.

Game 14: Ding–Gukesh, 0–1

Game 14, a 58-move win for Gukesh, was played on 12 December 2024. The win resulted in Gukesh being crowned World Champion. Since the scores were tied at 6½-6½ entering this game, a win for either player would have meant winning the match; a draw would have led to a series of tie-break games to be played on the following day.

King's Indian Attack, French, Reversed Grünfeld Variation (ECO A08)
1. Nf3 d5 2. g3 c5 3. Bg2 Nc6 4. d4 e6 5. 0-0 cxd4 6. Nxd4 Nge7 7. c4 Nxd4 8. Qxd4 Nc6 9. Qd1 d4 10. e3 Bc5 11. exd4 Bxd4 12. Nc3 0-0 13. Nb5 Bb6 14. b3 a6 15. Nc3 Bd4 16. Bb2 e5 17. Qd2 Be6 18. Nd5 b5 19. cxb5 axb5 20. Nf4 exf4 21. Bxc6 Bxb2 22. Qxb2 Rb8 23. Rfd1 Qb6 24. Bf3 fxg3 25. hxg3 b4 26. a4 bxa3 27. Rxa3 g6 28. Qd4 Qb5 29. b4 Qxb4 30. Qxb4 Rxb4 31. Ra8 Rxa8 32. Bxa8 g5 33. Bd5 Bf5 34. Rc1 Kg7 35. Rc7 Bg6 36. Rc4 Rb1+ 37. Kg2 Re1 38. Rb4 h5 39. Ra4 Re5 40. Bf3 Kh6 41. Kg1 Re6 42. Rc4 g4 43. Bd5 Rd6 44. Bb7 Kg5 45. f3 f5 46. fxg4 hxg4 47. Rb4 Bf7 48. Kf2 Rd2+ 49. Kg1 Kf6 50. Rb6+ Kg5 51. Rb4 Be6 52. Ra4 Rb2 53. Ba8 Kf6 54. Rf4 Ke5 55. Rf2 Rxf2 56. Kxf2 Bd5 57. Bxd5 Kxd5 58. Ke3 Ke5 0–1

Game 13: Gukesh–Ding, ½–½

Yes we count who wins on tiebreaks. Gukesh can tie the classical and win on tiebreaks.

The provision is simply there if the match ends in a tie for whatever reason -- covid, I don't know -- then Ding will remain champion and this will result in NO. That is extremely unlikely.

@Moscow25 "Also as the defending champion Ding wins if the match ends in a tie." Is this still accurate? In the fide handbook under article 4. 4. 2. Tie-break it states "4. 4. 2. 7. If the game in Article 4.4.2.6 is drawn, the procedure described in Article 4.4.2.6 shall be applied until

a game is played with a decisive result"

@PuckMinder there cant be a tie

bought Ṁ100 NO

4-4

Game 8: Ding–Gukesh, ½–½

bought Ṁ50 NO

Game 4: Ding–Gukesh, ½–½

bought Ṁ333 YES

Gukesh wins game three. Back to solid favorite.
https://deepnewz.com/chess/gukesh-levels-world-chess-championship-singapore-ding-loses-on-time-76c77346

Game 1: Gukesh–Ding, 0–1

Game 2: Ding–Gukesh, ½–½

Arb

https://manifold.markets/Weezing/who-will-win-the-chess-world-champi

https://manifold.markets/mr_mino/will-ding-liren-win-the-2024-world

bought Ṁ23 YES

Big win for Ding.

Added some liquidity!

Also as the defending champion Ding wins if the match ends in a tie.
Hence the market is if Gukesh can win. Ding needs only a tied match to hold on to his championship.

I don't think this is true.

@TotalVerb Whatever you think if the match ends in a draw this resolves NO

@Moscow25 Sure, but that is a vacuous statement as the match cannot draw.

@Moscow25 You're embarrassing yourself, and as a Russian, I wish you were not Russian.

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